3
Sweet La Crema
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 85
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength87%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/12/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/01/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 07/03/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 14/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |