3
Illini Red
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 84
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/9
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-15 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-06-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +11.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 15/07/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 29% | -0.61 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |