6
Irish Spark
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 77
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 7-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 09/09/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 30/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 28/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 26/05/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 04/08/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |