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2

Nella

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 70

Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 70y

#1

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

82%

Place Prob

56%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Hawthorne 18/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 61 · 5f110y Fm 121 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 61 par18/09C6OR 61C6 @ Fairmount Park 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 60 · 5f110y Fas 120 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 60 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 21/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 60 · 6f 120 · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 60 par21/10C6OR 60C6 @ Fairmount Park 21/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 60 · 5f 124 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 60 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 12/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 59 · 5f110y 124 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 59 par12/05C6OR 59C6 @ Fairmount Park 02/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 58 · 6f 124 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 58 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 23/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 57 · 1m 124 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 57 par23/06C6OR 57C6 @ Fairmount Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 59 · 6f 126 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 59 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 25/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 62 · 6f 126 · below its mark25/08/2026 · OR 62 par25/08C6OR 62projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-25Fairmount Park?6th6th0
2026-07-25Fairmount Park?1st1st0
2026-06-23Fairmount Park?1st1st0
2026-06-02Fairmount Park?2nd2nd0
2026-05-12Fairmount Park?5th5th0
2026-04-21Fairmount Park?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0921/0423/0625/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength20%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20252nd10/382%75%-0.07
04/10/20252nd2/189%88%-0.02
21/10/20251st8/1597%100%+0.03
21/04/20264th4/179%40%-0.39
12/05/20265th10/147%33%-0.14
02/06/20262nd16/116%88%+0.72
23/06/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
25/07/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
25/08/20266th16/116%0%-0.16