1
Onthewayjimmy
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 70
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -7.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 29/08/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |