7
Tahoe Run
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 76
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-25 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 15/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 27/03/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |