5
Averyz Day
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 67
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 14/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |