2
Frosted Warrior
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 58
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Keeneland | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2025-09-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength51%
Delivery trend +18.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 03/10/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 04/11/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 19/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |