Gibran
5yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 62
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-11-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-07-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 08/05/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 23/06/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 15/07/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 23/11/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 21/12/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |