9
Last Moon
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 63
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 25% | -0.68 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |