Nathaniel's Hope
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 79
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-24 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-29 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-15 | Hawthorne | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-05-22 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-03-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-03-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/12/2024 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 22/12/2024 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/01/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 05/03/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 20/03/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 22/05/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 15/06/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 29/06/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 24/07/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |