5
Category Ten
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 85
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2025-11-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength89%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 28/09/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 19/10/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 17/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 19/12/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |