4
Double Thunder
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 90
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength31%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-30 | Hawthorne | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength46%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 19/08/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 13/09/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 09/10/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 30/10/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |