Zee Fire

5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 82

Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

93%

Place Prob

70%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▲2

Strength13%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.5

Today:

Class gap: -2.0

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-29	Fairmount Park	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-04-03	Tampa Bay Downs	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-03-20	Tampa Bay Downs	?	3rd	5th	−2	4.6
2026-02-28	Tampa Bay Downs	?	3rd	5th	−2	4.6
2026-02-14	Tampa Bay Downs	?	5th	7th	−2	2.6
2026-01-10	Tampa Bay Downs	?	5th	7th	−2	2.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength58%

Delivery trend -2.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
03/11/2025	5th	11/2	71%	64%	-0.07
12/12/2025	7th	33/1	0%	33%	+0.33
20/12/2025	1st	20/1	0%	100%	+1.00
10/01/2026	5th	5/1	74%	56%	-0.18
14/02/2026	5th	8/1	58%	64%	+0.06
28/02/2026	3rd	13/2	66%	78%	+0.12
20/03/2026	3rd	6/1	68%	82%	+0.13
03/04/2026	1st	5/2	87%	100%	+0.13
29/08/2026	1st	11/8	93%	100%	+0.07