IvyArcIvyArc
5

Strongest Link

3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 52

Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 70y

#3

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength85%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Finger Lakes 20/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS20/07C6C6 @ Finger Lakes 26/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 51 · 5f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 51 par26/08C6OR 51projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Finger Lakes?6th3rd+3
2026-07-20Finger Lakes?5th2nd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0726/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +24.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/07/20265th12/137%50%+0.13
26/08/20266th20/10%38%+0.38