5
Four Top
5yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 84
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength58%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 10/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 01/10/2025 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 38% | -0.54 |
| 01/01/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 17/01/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 55% | -0.14 |
| 15/02/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 08/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 04/04/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 11% | -0.36 |
| 20/05/2026 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 33% | -0.57 |