Interstate
8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 66
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/10/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 10/11/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 12/05/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/05/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |