6
Fairweatherlover
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 56
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
22%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 20/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 16/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 08/06/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |