9
Lady Of Mercia
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 34
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength32%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength28%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 26/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 12/08/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 09/09/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |