2
Stella Brown
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 36
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength7%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 27/08/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 10/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 24/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/10/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |