Tiz Goldy
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 67
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-09-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 10th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-08-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-07-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 20/08/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 19/09/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 22/06/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |