1
Bootsy's A Rascal
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 65
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-08-16 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-04-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/12/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 14/03/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/04/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 28/06/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 19/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |