5
Ava's Uncle Billy
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 79
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
83%
Place Prob
54%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength48%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength73%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 13/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 27/08/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 14/11/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |