2
Emerald Forest
8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 72
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength12%
Delivery trend -6.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/12/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 04/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |
| 01/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 13/03/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 12/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 01/09/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |