Sutton Breeze
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 77
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 29/10/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 13/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 25/11/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 10/11 | 95% | 33% | -0.62 |
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 31/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |