2
Mizty Fog
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 43
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-08-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-06 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength25%
Delivery trend -9.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 14/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 11/06/2026 | 12th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 19/07/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |