5
Arbitration
4yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 105
Fontwell · betting.bet Free Racing Tips Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 162y
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | Worcester | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Nottingham | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Doncaster | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-15 | Thirsk | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength52%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 62% | -0.12 |
| 28/06/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 44% | -0.41 |
| 22/07/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 15/08/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 02/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 70% | +0.04 |
| 08/10/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 46% | -0.33 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |