2
Goodwin Face
6yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 112
Fontwell · betting.bet Free Racing Tips Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 162y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Cartmel | 2 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Cartmel | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Plumpton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-05 | Plumpton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-05-11 | Plumpton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-04-06 | Plumpton | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -8.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2024 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 21/10/2024 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 21/12/2024 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 06/04/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 11/05/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 05/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 28/06/2026 | 9th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |