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Tilehurst

5yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 110

Fontwell · betting.bet Free Racing Tips Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 162y

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

32%

Place Prob

30%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Recorded a first success since his bumper debut in 2m Worcester handicap in July, finding generously in first-time cheekpieces. Ran at least as well from a 7 lb higher mark when runner-up back there 18 days ago and can remain competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Catterick 22/01/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 1m7f156y Goo 16322/0154 @ Worcester 12/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 2m Goo 1534 @ Worcester 24/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 2m Gd 15424/0744 @ Stratford 06/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 107 · 2m70y Goo 156 · below its mark06/09/2025 · OR 107 par4 @ Taunton 09/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 105 · 2m104y Goo 163 · below its mark09/03/2026 · OR 105 par9/034OR 1054 @ Huntingdon 04/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 106 · 1m7f171y Gd 160 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 106 par4 @ Market Rasen 05/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 105 · 2m125y Gd 163 · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 105 par5/074OR 1054 @ Worcester 22/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 103 · 2m Gd 161 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 103 par4 @ Worcester 04/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 110 · 2m Gd 168 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 110 par4/094OR 110projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Worcester42nd2nd0
2026-07-22Worcester41st1st0
2026-07-05Market Rasen45th5th0
2026-04-04Huntingdon44th4th0
2026-03-09Taunton42nd2nd0
2025-09-06Stratford43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/016/095/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength72%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/01/20258th10/382%30%-0.52
12/06/20252nd18/15%90%+0.85
24/07/20253rd7/491%80%-0.11
06/09/20253rd5/493%82%-0.12
09/03/20262nd15/261%89%+0.28
04/04/20264th9/488%57%-0.31
05/07/20265th7/282%33%-0.48
22/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
04/09/20262nd6/492%80%-0.12