3
Lermoos Legend
11yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 113
Fontwell · City Electrical Factors Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 3f 104y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
92%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Bangor-on-Dee | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Cartmel | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Cartmel | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Worcester | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Ffos Las | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Market Rasen | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 4.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 07/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 22/09/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 14/10/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 21/04/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 22/05/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |