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Tapley

9yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 120

Fontwell · City Electrical Factors Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 3f 104y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened chase account at Wincanton in November and doubled tally in another small-field affair at Stratford in March. Rare poor effort at latter track 2 months later and off since, leaving Suzy Smith in that time. More likely than not to bounce back given overall profile.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength58%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Plumpton 20/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 116 · 1m7f195y Goo 164 · below its mark20/10/2025 · OR 116 par20/104OR 1163 @ Wincanton 08/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 109 · 2m4f35y Goo 151 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 109 par4 @ Wincanton 20/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 110 · 2m4f35y Gd 168 · beat its mark20/11/2025 · OR 110 par20/114OR 1103 @ Doncaster 28/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 110 · 2m3f31y GS 156 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 110 par3 @ Kempton 26/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 117 · 2m4f110y Goo 151 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 117 par26/123OR 1173 @ Kempton 14/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 119 · 2m2f Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/03/2026 · OR 119 par3 @ Stratford 28/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 117 · 2m6f125y Goo 157 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 117 par28/033OR 1173 @ Newton Abbot 14/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 120 · 2m4f216y Goo 160 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/04/2026 · OR 120 par4 @ Stratford 17/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 120 · 2m6f125y Goo 168 · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 120 par17/054OR 120projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-17Stratford44th4th0
2026-04-14Newton Abbot33rd2nd+1
2026-03-28Stratford31st0th+1
2026-03-14Kempton33rd2nd+1
2025-12-26Kempton32nd1st+1
2025-11-28Doncaster34th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1028/1128/0317/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 433% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 4. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/10/20253rd15/890%60%-0.30
08/11/20252nd5/287%80%-0.07
20/11/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
28/11/20254th13/891%50%-0.41
26/12/20252nd22/10%89%+0.89
14/03/20263rd7/282%60%-0.22
28/03/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
14/04/20263rd5/287%33%-0.54
17/05/20264th6/492%40%-0.52