1
Causing Problems
3yo Gelding · 11-2
Fontwell · betting.bet New Betting Sites Juvenile Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 1f 162y
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | Nottingham | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-03-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-11-20 | Lingfield | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Yarmouth | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Newmarket | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -19.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 13/10/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 20/11/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 30/03/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 08/04/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |