2
Houndswood Willow
3yo Gelding · 11-2
Fontwell · betting.bet New Betting Sites Juvenile Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 1f 162y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 10.1 /10 (raw 7.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Fontwell | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Ffos Las | 6 | 10th | 12th | −2 |
| 2026-07-08 | Chepstow | 6 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Goodwood | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Nottingham | 6 | 11th | 13th | −2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 4 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 17/10/2025 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/04/2026 | 16th | 150/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 19/05/2026 | 11th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 04/08/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 71% | +0.16 |