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5

Royal Sapphire

3yo Gelding · 11-2

Fontwell · betting.bet New Betting Sites Juvenile Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 1f 162y

#6

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair maiden on the Flat (best effort at 12.5f) but it's a little concerning he was sold out of Joseph Patrick O'Brien's yard for only 2,000 gns.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 12.5 /10 (raw 10.1)

Highest class: BHA55
Recent avg: C7.1
Today: 4
Class gap: -3.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 09/01/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR - · 1m Std 1349/01C8C8 @ Dundalk 23/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR - · 7f Std 134C8 @ Dundalk 30/01/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR - · 1m Std 13430/01C8C8 @ Dundalk 13/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 1m Std 134C7 @ Ballinrobe 08/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m1f133y Goo 1388/05C7C7 @ Gowran Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 7f Goo 131C8 @ Gowran Park 01/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR - · 1m1f120y Yie 1341/06C8BHA55 @ Limerick 10/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 55 · 1m3f210y Goo 125 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 55 parC8 @ Limerick 19/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 50 · 1m4f70y Sft 133 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 50 par19/06C8OR 50projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-19Limerick?3rd8th−4
2026-06-10LimerickBHA5512th14th−2
2026-06-01Gowran Park?10th15th−4
2026-05-20Gowran Park?7th10th−3
2026-05-08Ballinrobe?10th13th−3
2026-02-13Dundalk?11th16th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0113/021/0619/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/01/202614th33/10%0%0.00
23/01/202611th125/10%17%+0.17
30/01/202613th150/10%8%+0.08
13/02/202611th250/10%9%+0.09
08/05/202610th40/10%0%0.00
20/05/20267th50/10%0%0.00
01/06/202610th200/10%36%+0.36
10/06/202612th66/10%27%+0.27
19/06/20263rd40/10%82%+0.82