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6

Atreides

8yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 94

Fontwell · Setford Handicap Hurdle · 2m 5f 164y

#5

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won back-to-back small-field handicap chase contests in December, latterly at this venue. Some creditable efforts over fences this summer and while he didn't justify strong market support over C&D from his lower hurdles mark 16 days ago, it wasn't a bad effort. Visor back on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Plumpton 01/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 94 · 2m3f166y Goo 168 · beat its mark01/12/2025 · OR 94 par1/125OR 944 @ Fontwell 08/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 94 · 2m3f104y Hvy 155 · beat its mark08/12/2025 · OR 94 par4 @ Wincanton 29/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 102 · 2m4f35y Hvy 164 · below its mark29/01/2026 · OR 102 par29/014OR 1024 @ Worcester 22/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 102 · 2m4f Gd 150 · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 102 par5 @ Fontwell 10/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 102 · 2m3f104y Goo 166 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 102 par10/065OR 1024 @ Worcester 01/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 101 · 2m7f Gd 157 · below its mark01/07/2026 · OR 101 par5 @ Worcester 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 100 · 2m4f Goo 166 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 100 par16/075OR 1005 @ Worcester 19/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 98 · 2m7f Gd 162 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 98 par5 @ Fontwell 06/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 94 · 2m5f164y Gd 166 · below its mark06/09/2026 · OR 94 par6/095OR 94projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06Fontwell53rd4th−1
2026-08-19Worcester513th14th−1
2026-07-16Worcester53rd4th−1
2026-07-01Worcester45th5th0
2026-06-10Fontwell53rd4th−1
2026-05-22Worcester46th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1222/0516/076/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/12/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
08/12/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
29/01/20262nd11/486%83%-0.02
22/05/20266th17/255%38%-0.18
10/06/20263rd10/382%50%-0.32
01/07/20265th17/255%60%+0.05
16/07/20263rd9/276%60%-0.16
19/08/202613th16/116%14%-0.02
06/09/20263rd11/486%60%-0.26