3
Motazzen
8yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 106
Fontwell · Setford Handicap Hurdle · 2m 5f 164y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Fontwell | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Fontwell | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Southwell | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Plumpton | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Fontwell | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Fontwell | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 85% | +0.58 |
| 02/02/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 20/02/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 27/03/2026 | 1st | 11/5 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/05/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 16/08/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |