1
Siam Park
7yo Gelding · 12-2 · OR 112
Fontwell · Setford Handicap Hurdle · 2m 5f 164y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
86%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Worcester | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-14 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-24 | Taunton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Taunton | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 29/03/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 20/04/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 18/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 17/11/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 09/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 24/03/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 83% | +0.28 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |