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2

Ballynaheer

7yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 106

Fontwell · betting.bet Play Champion Tipster Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m 1f 210y

#2

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Quickly resumed winning ways at Market Rasen (3m) in April but that was a decidedly weak affair and he's failed to beat a rival both starts later in the spring. Had a breathing operation ahead of return but assessor looks to have him (runner-up from 14 lb lower in this race a year ago).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Fontwell 07/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 85 · 3m1f210y Goo 163 · beat its mark07/09/2025 · OR 85 par7/095OR 854 @ Fontwell 22/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 92 · 3m1f210y Goo 155 · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 92 par5 @ Hereford 13/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 92 · 3m1f44y Goo 160 · beat its mark13/10/2025 · OR 92 par13/105OR 925 @ Warwick 04/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 94 · 3m1f100y Gd 162 · beat its mark04/11/2025 · OR 94 par4 @ Plumpton 17/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 100 · 3m1f157y Gd 162 · beat its mark17/11/2025 · OR 100 par17/114OR 1004 @ Huntingdon 18/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 105 · 2m7f129y Gd 159 · below its mark18/03/2026 · OR 105 par4 @ Market Rasen 05/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 104 · 2m7f191y Goo 163 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 104 par5/044OR 1044 @ Fontwell 24/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 107 · 3m1f210y Gd 168 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 107 par3 @ Stratford 30/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 107 · 3m3f119y Goo 156 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 107 par30/053OR 107projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-30Stratford35th4th+1
2026-04-24Fontwell45th5th0
2026-04-05Market Rasen41st1st0
2026-03-18Huntingdon44th4th0
2025-11-17Plumpton41st1st0
2025-11-04Warwick51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/094/115/0430/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 3-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/09/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
22/09/20252nd11/486%83%-0.02
13/10/20252nd9/488%88%-0.01
04/11/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
17/11/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
18/03/20264th6/168%0%-0.68
05/04/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
24/04/20265th18/581%0%-0.81
30/05/20265th10/147%0%-0.47