3
Guinness Lad
6yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 78
Fontwell · betting.bet Free Bets Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 162y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength38%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Windsor | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Windsor | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Windsor | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Windsor | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-28 | Kempton | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/12/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 27/12/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 14/01/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 55% | -0.17 |
| 28/01/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 93% | +0.27 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 20/07/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 30% | -0.49 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |