4
Hawa Jumeirah
5yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 77
Fontwell · betting.bet Free Bets Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 162y
#8
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength56%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Fontwell | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Taunton | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/09/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 25/02/2026 | 11th | 300/1 | 0% | 41% | +0.41 |
| 09/04/2026 | 5th | 200/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 200/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 03/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |