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Lady Fortune

6yo Mare · 11-4 · OR 83

Fontwell · betting.bet Free Bets Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 162y

#6

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Narrowly landed a gamble following a breathing operation/break at Market Rasen (2½m) in late-May and resumed winning ways under change of tactics on stable debut at Uttoxeter in July. Race 11 days later may have come too soon and a hood is now back on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength17%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Carlisle 15/12/2024 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 2m1f Sft 15615/1254 @ Southwell 03/02/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 1m7f182y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Huntingdon 20/02/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 1m7f171y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS20/0244 @ Market Rasen 16/03/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 2m4f139y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Market Rasen 13/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 78 · 2m7f16y Gd 152 · beat its mark13/06/2025 · OR 78 par13/065OR 785 @ Market Rasen 28/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 71 · 2m4f139y Gd 142 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Market Rasen 19/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 75 · 2m7f16y Gd 143 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 75 par19/065OR 755 @ Uttoxeter 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 75 · 1m7f168y Gd 147 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Uttoxeter 26/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 83 · 1m7f168y Gd 153 · below its mark26/07/2026 · OR 83 par26/075OR 83projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-26Uttoxeter510th10th0
2026-07-15Uttoxeter51st1st0
2026-06-19Market Rasen54th4th0
2026-05-28Market Rasen51st1st0
2026-01-12Hereford50
2025-06-13Market Rasen55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1216/0319/0626/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength34%

Delivery trend -8.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/12/20245th22/10%56%+0.56
03/02/20257th250/10%25%+0.25
20/02/202510th250/10%18%+0.18
16/03/20257th250/10%14%+0.14
13/06/20255th25/10%50%+0.50
28/05/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
19/06/20264th11/486%67%-0.19
15/07/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
26/07/202610th2/189%10%-0.79