8
Lucky In Taipan
6yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 72
Fontwell · betting.bet Free Bets Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 162y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Bangor-on-Dee | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-19 | Worcester | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Perth | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-15 | Worcester | 4 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Worcester | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-07-14 | Newton Abbot | 4 | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2024 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 17/11/2024 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/12/2024 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 23/05/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 31/08/2025 | 6th | 300/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 15/09/2025 | 13th | 250/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 17% | -0.71 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |