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Midnight Pass

5yo Mare · 11-12 · OR 91

Fontwell · betting.bet Free Bets Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 162y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

96%

Place Prob

75%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up in a bumper last summer. Modest form over hurdles, though did run right up to her best when third in maiden company in July. Since left Emma Lavelle.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Worcester 02/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 2m Goo 1522/0755 @ Worcester 24/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 2m Gd 1454 @ Stratford 06/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 2m70y Goo 149 · HIGHER CLASS6/0944 @ Warwick 23/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 2m Goo 145 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Hereford 13/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 2m53y Goo 157 · HIGHER CLASS13/1044 @ Taunton 22/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 97 · 2m3f1y Gd 155 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 97 par4 @ Fontwell 24/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 92 · 2m3f29y Goo 150 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 92 par24/054OR 924 @ Uttoxeter 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 88 · 2m3f207y Gd 158 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 88 par15/074OR 88projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15Uttoxeter43rd2nd+1
2026-06-19Market Rasen50
2026-05-24Fontwell44th3rd+1
2026-05-12Hereford50
2026-04-22Taunton44th3rd+1
2025-10-13Hereford43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0723/0924/0515/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/07/20252nd9/153%89%+0.36
24/07/20256th13/891%44%-0.47
06/09/20259th12/137%27%-0.10
23/09/20253rd20/10%67%+0.67
13/10/20253rd11/142%71%+0.29
22/04/20264th33/10%63%+0.63
24/05/20264th17/255%57%+0.02
15/07/20263rd13/266%71%+0.06