Winston's Oath
4yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 78
Fontwell · betting.bet Free Bets Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 162y
#7
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Brighton | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Windsor | 3 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-08-06 | Newmarket | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Leicester | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Stratford | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 13/06/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 30/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/08/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/09/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |