4
Holiday Rose
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 68
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
Delivery trend -12.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 06/11/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 11/12/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 22/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 17/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |