Proud Mischief
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 63
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-10-03 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-08-22 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-31 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2024 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/11/2024 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 07/06/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 26/06/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 31/07/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 22/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 01/09/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 03/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |