Abitibi
7yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 75
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-04-16 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 09/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 18/12/2025 | 12th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 21/02/2026 | 9th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 16/04/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 01/06/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |