5
Frac Amour
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 65
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength67%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 04/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 0% | -0.95 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 15/09/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |