2

Legs Like Flatter

5yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 74

Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

88%

Place Prob

65%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength29%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fort Erie 23/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 71 · 6f 124 · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 71 par23/09C8OR 71C8 @ Fort Erie 13/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 77 · 6f 120 · below its mark13/10/2025 · OR 77 parC8 @ Fort Erie 21/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 73 · 5f110y Fas 124 · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 73 par21/10C8OR 73C7 @ Woodbine 08/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 77 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 77 parC8 @ Woodbine 28/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 75 · 6f110y Fas 121 · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 75 par28/11C8OR 75C8 @ Fort Erie 29/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 67 · 5f110y 124 · below its mark29/06/2026 · OR 67 parC8 @ Fort Erie 21/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 66 · 5f110y 122 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 66 par21/07C8OR 66C7 @ Fort Erie 03/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 73 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 73 parC8 @ Fort Erie 17/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 70 · 6f 122 · below its mark17/08/2026 · OR 70 par17/08C8OR 70projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-17Fort Erie?6th6th0
2026-08-03Fort Erie?6th5th+1
2026-07-21Fort Erie?1st1st0
2026-06-29Fort Erie?5th5th0
2025-11-28Woodbine?7th7th0
2025-11-08Woodbine?7th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/098/1121/0717/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength18%

Delivery trend -6.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/09/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
13/10/20253rd5/174%50%-0.24
21/10/20253rd4/179%67%-0.12
08/11/20257th33/10%0%0.00
28/11/20257th20/10%0%0.00
29/06/20265th9/276%33%-0.43
21/07/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
03/08/20266th5/174%0%-0.74
17/08/20266th6/168%17%-0.52