3
Zipfire
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 67
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength50%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 11/12/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 22/05/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 13% | -0.51 |
| 11/06/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |